Final Week

 If nothing else the stock game has proven out the great social experiment. Not unlike the bell curve to the left, my emotions drove most of my stock buy and sell activity. I notice my earlier strategy went out the window. Prior to the last week I was making at least half thought out decisions. My big fear starting out was losing all my money.

During this last week I waited for a couple of my losers to rebound (hope). I had done fairly well on my Canadian portfolio and was up from the high teens sitting at 8. Wow. I considered what could I purchase and maybe make some cash on in the final week to see if I could climb the US rankings (greed).

On my watch list I had been tracking Silvercorp for a few weeks, it had been on the rise (hope). Buying on November 9, $30,000 worth, imagine my shock when on the 10th I was down almost $2400! (fear). I will give it a day (hope).

Sitting in front of my computer screen on Friday November 12th staring at my stock portfolio, though logically I know I can not recover from my, now $3,600 plus loss, I wonder if others may have done the same (hope).

I later that day I read that Silvercorp had bought a Mexican mine located in China on November 8th; after reporting record sales and announcing the first ever dividends to be paid out. Click here to see the drop of doom. Choose the one month view.

My biggest Losers were...

Avon

MGM Resorts

Silvercorp

My Big earners were...
                               Estee Lauder  Argonaut Gold
                                         Canadian Natural Gas       





Considering my over all performance I am pleased. I finished 6th in the Canadian market. If I had not made that last greedy silver trade I would have finished 14th in the US market but I did so instead I finished 21st . I did hang in for some stock to rebound CNG and LULU those paid off. I did use my hunches to produce some good results. I believe I may not be cut out for 'trading' with other peoples money. I find I am very intersted in selling stocks of a company I own or work for.

In the end the learning was worth any mental anxiety after all it wasn't real.



Economic Event #2

As I read the following article from Newsweek the fact my week preformed as it did made some  sense. Especially as it relates to the silver stock. I am grateful I closed my Canadian protfolio earlier in the week. Perhaps there is still hope as my unknowing classmates wait until 2pm waiting for profits to push them forward in the rankings as the game ends.

Canadian Stocks fall as 

Chinese Interest rates concerns Weaken Oil

By Matt Walcoff

Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Canadian stocks fell, headed for the biggest weekly loss in almost three months, as oil and metals dropped on speculation that China will raise interest rates.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index decreased 139.89 points, or 1.1 percent, to 12,794.85 as of 10:44 a.m. in Toronto. For the week, the index has slipped 1 percent.

The S&P/TSX surged 17 percent in the four months ending last week as the U.S. dollar plunged and commodities rallied on concern U.S. monetary stimulus would weaken the currency. The greenback is having its biggest weekly gain since August as unease over European government debt sends the euro lower.

Chinese stocks declined the most since August 2009 today as investors speculated the People’s Bank of China will raise interest rates. Yesterday, the country said consumer prices increased 4.4 percent in October, the most in two years.

Crude oil retreated the most in three weeks, losing 1.6 percent to $86.38 a barrel. China is the world’s second biggest user of the fuel behind the U.S., according to the U.S. Energy Department.

Energy Shares.

All of the major base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange fell, with zinc tumbling as much as 4.7 percent. China, the world’s largest metals consumer, sold zinc from its reserves at below-market prices to curb recent price gains...    

The story goes on to finish  ...BlackBerry maker Research In Motion Ltd. advanced 3.7 percent to C$61.53, extending its three-day increase to 11 percent. I guess I could have held on to that stock.

To read the story in it's entirety please click here.

Invester Terms

Buy Break

source: Investopedia  

When a stock appears to have met resistance at the $50 price level for the last year. Many traders will watch the price movement around $50 very closely because a break above the resistance would suggest that a likely surge higher will follow. Technical traders use a break above resistance to signal a good opportunity to buy because a resulting surge of upward momentum commonly follows.

Gap Sampl

Gapping

source: Investopedia 

To employ a gap strategy an investor can scan the morning prices for a gap and watch to see what the stock does in the first couple hours of the trading day. In general, if the price goes up, it signals a buy, and if it goes down, a short. There are several variations of the gap strategy.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

source: Investopedia  

"Ichimoku" is a Japanese word that means "one look." This charting technique was created by a Japanese newspaper writer. It does look very complicated when a trader sees the indicator for the first time, the complexity quickly disappears once you gain an understanding of what the various lines mean and why they are used.

In my web search to learn more I came across a blog Introduction to Ichimoku. The blog writer has committed himself to helping others understand how to read these charts, a sample is  show below. The blog also provides comments from other users of the chart. To read the blog or see the chart in more detail just click here.

Sample Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Chart

Climbing the Ranks

Finally I can report my portfolio is in the black! Earlier in the week I noticed I was creeping up and ended the week at 16 US and 15 Canadian. This was helped by the markets having a good week, I also noticed I  beat (up 1.56) the S&P (up by 0.36). 

Since some of my losers were up, I decided to sell, take the cash and buy just one more stock.

So happy to sell Krispie Kream. It had looked so promising but  something "happened" as the stock, which had gained rapidly since August, started dropping. Silly me. 

 I thought Agrium was a good idea. I don't know if I had thought for a longer period of time perhaps I would have realized it's not planting season!

CF Holdings I bought because it was one of the top earners in our game. Turns out not for me. Bye Bye.

Shoppers I sold because I just felt I could invest the money more aggressively for our last few weeks.

I have 11 stocks in my portfolio and other than AVON which has lost  over one thousand dollars, the US group is doing well. On the Canadian side I am now ahead on the  CNG stock (up over 100 this week) and LULU is almost at break even. Rim is sucking but I hold high hopes. The big winners are my gold stock and MasterCard.

 I am so glad I unloaded several stocks this week and made some cash too! I considered again the holidays and what does everyone buy? I tossed around the obvious then it hit me. I bought at 25.03 and it closed the week at 25.29 making me 250 bucks so far.

More of the Same

I am still at the bottom of the rankings mostly due to CNG and LULU. But I have gained on myself!

This week I researched companies like Hallmark and Carlton and others such as Cadbury and Nestle. My thought was to look at what I considered Holiday stocks. In the end either I did not want to purchase after viewing the history or the Brand name belonged to a big conglomerate like P&G.

I sold short Agrium last week and after a few days it rebounded and  I  covered. I don't like the idea of selling short. Perhaps if there is a company out there I would support pulling the plug on I might feel different.

I had MasterCard A on my watch list for a while and decided to go for it. I have no idea what the A stands for. I assume this is a great season for retail and by buying a retail related stock, like this one,  perhaps it's will have the effect of a mutual fund. I should benefit from all retail purchases.

I am not sure what I was thinking Last week I sold my US RIMM stock because I did not like the up and down action. This week I bought RIM Canada. I have to trust for a bit that my subconscious knew what I was doing. I feel a bit like a dork on this one.

I sold Estee. I  didn't want to but I really was not performing as it had in my other group.  It had been a big winner there and in the end I lost fake money at every turn. I may regret this.


My plan for next week is to make a decision about CNG and LULU and to plan a mini strategy that may contribute  to my portfolio as our game approaches the end.

Sticking my neck out.

The stock game reminds me of dating.
Hoping things will change, but not really having any control over the change. Trying to guess what might happen, will things improve?

Just not being able to toss in the towel because of the time invested so far. On the bright side...Playing stocks rarely leads to housework.

The First Part of the Second Half - Wha?

My rankings dropped this week, however my weekly performance would put me in the top 25%. It is a bit of a catchup game.

This week a bit of frustration set in regarding the CNQ  and LULU stocks, I found myself waiting for the stock to rise so I could sell it. It never accurded to me to sell it short but I heard about Encana stock dropping so decided to sell this stock short and made a few bucks the first day. We will see what the end of the week brings. My first goal is to get my portifolio into the black.

I purchased Krispy Kream stock that I had been watching which has a steady climb at 31% for the last year in particular since the end of August 2010.  I sold my rim stock I jsut was not comfortable with the daily change compared to others in my portfolio.

I am reaserching  stocks related to the food and upcoming holiday for my next purchases.

Interim Report

After my flurry of purchases on October 8th the following week I completely forgot to trade. I didn't so much as forget as went to work and had no access to a computer for the day. You might ask your self what kind of business does not have access to the internet?
The kind that does not want their employees to be on the internet.

I made my trades on the following Monday October 18 and prepared my spread sheets to include these.

I purchased these stocks because they had been on my watch list and on the rise.

Apple
Agruim
CF Industry Holding

I sold these stocks to free up some cash and because I just did not have the happy vibe looking at them.

TD (US)
MGM Resorts
Disney

My rankings are kind of demotivating this week. On the bright side there is nowhere to go but up.

US 22
Canadian  23

Feeling pretty good about Estee Lauder and I decided to watch Canadian Natural Resources rather than sell, problem is I don't have my old portfolio profits for a cushion.  I have been monitoring several companies on the my watch list including:

Sony                  up 1.6%
MasterCard A  up 2.7%
Krispie Kream up 7.96%

Considering the shape of my portfolio today and this weeks market so far I am impressed that the above stocks held well. I look forward to the coming weeks and climbing my way up to #18.

Investor Concepts

Investment Concept #1
Source: Investopedia
PERCs

PERCs - Convertible preferred stocks, which at a pre-determined maturity/redemption date converts to equity (cash or shares of underlying stock). PERCS can typically be redeemed before the maturity date, but at a premium of the cap price. If an investor does not redeem the shares within a three year period, the shares are converted to common stocks and the dividends are reverted to those that would be paid on common stock.



Investment Concept #2
Source: EthicalFunds.com
Psychology of the Market Phases

Many emotions can impact our investment decisions. It's not that we're irrational, but rather that we're human. No matter how well informed or experienced, most investors eventually fall victim to psychological factors that influence their investment decisions.

At market bottom: The media and investors believe that stocks are a poor investment, and that there is no compelling reason to buy stocks. Stock prices decrease.

Early stage recovery: Investor confidence is still hurting, but there are a number of savvy investors looking for bargains in the equity (stock) markets.

Mid-stage bull market: The media is no longer writing doom and gloom stories about the stock markets. The average investor is returning to buying equities.

Peak of bull market: Euphoria sets in. Everyone seems to own stocks and talks about higher prices.

Bear market: Consumer confidence wanes and the sentiment towards stocks is negative

Investment Concept #3

Source: EthicalFunds.com
Diversification

The word diversification meaning seems apparent at first but as I discovered there are several ways a stock portfolio can be diversified to manage risk. A few ways include

• Assets class- Stocks, bonds, and money markets are different assets classes
• Geographically
• Industry Sector
• Market Capitalization - a mixture of large and small companies

Economic Event

Up in Smoke?

I am concerned about the CNQ stock, as shown in the two article headlines below natural gas prices are either falling or rising.  I was planning to hold $30,000 for the game duration since it was one of the biggest earners over the past few weeks. For the first time in 4 weeks there was a net loss at the end of the week. 

Government says the price of heating is headed up this winter

‎Source: WALB-TV – October 13, 2010

The average cost of natural gas is expected to rise about $27. ... And homes heated with propane could see prices rise by $136...to read more click here

Plunging natural gas prices chill sector

Source: Martin Mittelstaedt 

Gold, silver and a host of other commodity prices are in liftoff mode. But one important material isn’t joining in the party: natural gas.

The fuel’s price has been falling recently, and by many accounts, is likely to continue going that way, possibly for a long time...to read more click here

Week 4 Changes

Some changes occurred this week as our team split to create two teams. Setting up the new game was time consuming and exciting. There was about 30 minutes left before the markets closed as I started my trades. I made 12 trades in about 30 minutes. I learned the game doesn’t allow for selling within 15 minutes of buying. I am pretty sure I bought some of this stock on margin. In addition to the stocks carried over from the last group a few more were added*. I am not in the standings as of the end of the market day due to timing.



The stocks purchased at the end of last week followed by my thoughts after the purchase

Canadian Natural Resources TSX "safety"

LuLu Athletica Inc. TSX "I really should go back to yoga"

Toronto Dominion Bank NYSE " Did I buy the us or the Canadian ?"

*Tim Hortons NYSE  " I feel like a lemming"

*Toronto Dominion Bank TSX  "Did I buy the US or Canadian?"

*MGM Resorts International NYSE "Where is this?"

Estee Lauder NYSE "This is my money maker"

*Royal Bank NYSE "Why don't I bank with them?"

Research in Motion NYSE "I never wanted to buy this the first time"

Avon NYSE "need lotion"

Walt Disney NYSE "I have a bad feeling about this"

Week 3

This week we were looking forward to selling some of our stock. Our portfolio overall is doing well. We are #2 in the US and #7 in the the Canadian dollar game.

 We have been meeting on Friday’s and found we  wanting more time for trades ,so decided to do this first thing at our meeting.  Westjet (WJA) and Walmart (WMT) were down from last week, disappointing, and so we chose to sell them. We talked about selling these shares short; this made us nervous since what we read on Investopeida suggested this was an activity for more experienced traders.  We sold part of both these stocks and short sold the balance.

 We had also discussed getting some bank stock added to our portfolio. One of our instructor’s states weekly in class, “don’t owe the bank, own the bank”. We completed some comparative quick research with a tool located on the globe investor.  This suggested buying TD (US) ‘strongly’, so we did. Lulu lemon Athletica (LULU) we added as a Canadian purchase this week based on the performance and the fact we love their products. Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) has been our strongest performing stock. We talked about selling some of the shares and banking the profit made so far or using the profit to buy other stocks. In the end we bought several more shares of this stock. If you are on a roll stay on a roll.

We made 7 transactions this week. It was very exciting.  It is a long weekend in Canada so markets will not open until Tuesday, while the rest of the world continues on Monday.

Week 2

To start the meeting on Friday in this week, we took a look at our ranking and stock performances in the game. We all felt more confident to get along with the game thanks to our stock’s improving performances and our strategy. 

Although we did lose some money on the stocks we are holding, we are still happy with our approach for trading. We are in the top five again for the rankings. Like last week, we decided to buy more stocks this week and not sell any of the stocks that we are holding. Furthermore, we all agreed to invest more in the Canadian market rather than the U.S market due to our team’s purchasing power in those markets.

 Through the meeting, our team came up with a list of companies, which we would choose for trading later on.  By comparing performance of all companies on the list based on EPS, PE, and Prices, we chose WestJet and RIM, which are in Canadian market and Walmart as well as Walt Disney, which are in US market to invest in.

The reason to choose RIM again is because we felt confident with the company thanks to the company’s vertical improvements in the US as well as the Canadian stock market. Moreover, the purchasing power allowed us to invest more in Canadian stocks, and we all came out with the idea to buy more RIM. We invested in Westjet because it is a great Canadian company in airline industry. They are not only providing safe flights but also excellent customer services. Based on the fundamental analysis, their stock does go up every November – December period, which is influenced by traveling demand in Christmas.

In the other market, we chose Walmart because of the increasing  shopping activities for Christmas. In addition, Walmart is one of the largest corporations for consumer goods in North American, they were doing really good in the recession due to their lower prices comparing to other competitors in the industry. The last company is Walt Disney, which is the most famous animation producer for years. Choosing their stock in addition to Walmart was a further step in our strategy to see how the entertainment industry would perform in this time of year.

After trading those stocks, we felt we were getting on track with our strategy, which the three of us set in the very first meeting. We are looking forward to see how those markets would go in this week

Week 1 -in review

Our team was completed by the addition of Saleha. We started the game last week and did 3 of our trades on Friday. Before making any moves, we thought of setting up a strategy and meeting each week to discuss how well it works for us. We are in the top 5 in each market due primarly to not making our trades until the end of the week, we hadn't lost anything yet compared to our classmates.
We invested in RIMM, Estee Lauder, and Canadian Natural Resources. The reason we chose RIMM is because of blackberry, a technology that is innovation consistently and continuously. Blackberry just came out with the new torch and is coming up with the “playbook” as a competitor for Apple, and its “I-pad”. Estee Lauder is a great make-up company which continues to sell regardless of summer or winter. They not only offer makeup but offer bed and bath accessories, which are not only great quality, but great sellers.  Since the last week, we have held on to all 3 of the stocks. Last week we were in negative numbers but we have caught up this week. The graphs for all three have been looking steady this week. The Canadian Natural Recourses’ graph has been inclining as far as the 5 day trend goes and is well stable according to the monthly trend. We were surprised to see that the monthly trends on the graphs for Estee Lauder and RIMM incline towards the end also. We are quite happy with that because we haven’t had to sell anything so far!
Our strategy for our first meeting was for each group member to research on companies, and pick 3 companies that they would like to present in the group meeting. At our meetings, we researched and selected 3 potential companies out of 9, to invest in. So far, we like this strategy because by having each one of us choose 3 companies, we have more options to choose from in case a company isn’t doing well and we aren’t comfortable investing in it, plus we save more time from researching, and get right to investing!
 Our overall strategy is to focus on large companies, keeping in mind time of year and consumer groups. We also considered the long game strategy and investing in commodities.

First Day

We met in the library. We planned strategy, goals and blog colours. We are excited and looking forward to making a lot of money.